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World Human Consumption

equals the product of:

 

World Human Population

population.jpg (22191 bytes)

and

Avg Human Per Capita Consumption

consumption.jpg (19047 bytes)

 

Both graphs shown have a vertical logarithmic scale.  An exponentially shaped graph (with a steady rate of growth) appears as a straight line on a logarithmic scale.  The consumption graph on the right is exponential.

A hyper-exponential graph is one that has an exponential shape even on a logarithmic scale, indicating an increasing rate of growth.  The world population graph on the left is an example of a hyper-exponential.

The per-capita consumption graph (right) shows doubling over 30 years (1950-1980).  World human population (left) is now doubling about every 35 years.  Multiplying per-capita consumption by world human population gives world human consumption.  This product is a compound hyper-exponential which is currently quadrupling about every 35 years. 

At its present rate of growth, world human consumption will increase by a factor of 16 during an average human lifetime.

Sources:

Average Human Per-capita Consumption graph shown above was adapted from: Parent, J. (1984). A Survey of United States and Total World Production, Proved Resources, and Remaining Recoverable Resources of Fossil Fuels and Uranium. Chicago:Institute of Gas Technology.

Cipolla,C. (1974). The Economic History of World Population. Harmondsworth,Eng:Penguin,pp.92,94,103.

Fey, W. R., and Lam, A. C. W.: ‘Pie in the Sky’: A System Dynamics Perspective of Sustainability, Proceedings of the 42nd Annual Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, 1998.

U.N. Population Div. (1994)."World Population Growth-Year 0 to Stabilization", Internet:gopher.undp.org.

U.S. Bureau of the Census (1974,83,91,94,96). World Population Profile. Washington, DC:US Govt P.O.


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